Free-ranging dogs are seriously threatening Himalayan environment: delineating the high-risk areas for curbing free-ranging dog infestation in the Trans-Himalayan region.

It is becoming more widely recognised that free-ranging dogs, which have a nearly global distribution, threatening native wildlife. Their increasing population and spread to new areas is of growing concern for the long-term viability of wildlife species. Hence, it is imperative to understand the factors responsible for their infestation and map areas where native species are most vulnerable. Using the random forests algorithm, we modelled the free-ranging dog infestation in the Trans-Himalayan region to pinpoint the high-risk areas where free-ranging dogs are threatening the native wildlife species. We found that the likelihood of free-ranging dog occurrence is most in valley regions and up to 4000 m, often in proximity to roads. Our results also indicated that free-ranging dog prefers areas with wildlife near to protected areas. The predictor variables, such as potential evapotranspiration of the coldest quarter, distance to protected areas, elevation, distance to roads, and potential evapotranspiration of the driest quarter, significantly influence the distribution of the free-ranging dogs. We found that within the Ladakh region of the Trans-Himalayan area, the high-risk zones for free-ranging dogs are located in and around Hemis National Park, Karakoram Wildlife Sanctuary, and Changthang Wildlife Sanctuary. While, in the Lahaul and Spiti region the high-risk areas encompass Pin Valley National Park, Inderkilla National Park, Khirganga National Park, Kugti Wildlife Sanctuary, and several other protected areas. We identified the potentially high-risk areas for implementing strategies to mitigate the possible impact of free-ranging dogs on native wildlife of the Himalayas. Hence, the identified high priority areas can be used for implementing actions for controlling the population growth and further preventing the infestation of the free-ranging dogs into the new areas.

Environmental predictors may change at fine scale habitat suitability modelling: implications for conservation of Kashmir musk deer in three protected areas of Uttarakhand, India.

The Kashmir musk deer (Moschus cupreus, hereafter KMD) is one of the top conservation priority species which is facing population decline due to poaching, habitat loss, and climate change. Therefore, the long-term survival and viability of KMD populations in their natural habitat require conservation and management of suitable habitats. Hence, the present study attempted to assess the suitable habitat of KMD in three protected areas (PAs) of the Western Himalayan region of Uttarakhand using the Maxent modelling algorithm. Our results suggest that Kedarnath wildlife sanctuary (KWLS) possesses the maximum highly suitable habitats (22.55%) of KMD, followed by Govind Pashu Vihar National Park & Sanctuary (GPVNP&S; 8.33%) and Gangotri National Park (GNP; 5%). Among the environmental variables, altitude was the major contributing factor governing the distribution of KMD in KWLS. In contrast, human footprint in GPVNP&S and precipitation in GNP were the major contributing factors governing the distribution of KMD in these respective PAs. The response curve indicated that habitats with less disturbance falling in the altitudinal zone of 2000-4000 m were the most suitable habitat range for the distribution of KMD in all three PAs. However, in the case of GNP suitable habitat of KMD increases with an increase in the value of variables bio_13 (precipitation of wettest month). Further, based on our results, we believe that the predictors of suitable habitat change are site specific and cannot be generalized in the entire distribution range of the species. Therefore, the present study will be helpful in making proper habitat management actions at fine scale for the conservation of KMD.

From poops to planning: A broad non-invasive genetic survey of large mammals from the Indian Himalayan Region.

Large forested landscapes often harbour significant amount of biodiversity and support mankind by rendering various livelihood opportunities and ecosystem services. Their periodic assessment for health and ecological integrity is essential for timely mitigation of any negative impact of human use due to over harvesting of natural resources or unsustainable developmental activities. In this context, monitoring of mega fauna may provide reasonable insights about the connectivity and quality of forested habitats. In the present study, we conducted a largest non-invasive genetic survey to explore mammalian diversity and genetically characterized 13 mammals from the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR). We analyzed 4806 faecal samples using 103 autosomal microsatellites and with three mitochondrial genes, we identified 37 species of mammal. We observed low to moderate level of genetic variability and most species exhibited stable demographic history. We estimated an unbiased population genetic account (PGAunbias) for 13 species that may be monitored after a fixed time interval to understand species performance in response to the landscape changes. The present study has been evident to show pragmatic permeability with the representative sampling in the IHR in order to facilitate the development of species-oriented conservation and management programmes.

Living with a large predator: Assessing the root causes of Human-brown bear conflict and their spatial patterns in Lahaul valley, Himachal Pradesh.

Brown bear-mediated conflicts have caused immense economic loss to the local people living across the distribution range. In India, limited knowledge is available on the Himalayan brown bear (HBB), making human-brown bear conflict (HBC) mitigation more challenging. In this study, we studied HBC in the Lahaul valley using a semi-structured questionnaire survey by interviewing 398 respondents from 37 villages. About 64.8% of respondents reported conflict in two major groups-crop damage (30.6%) and livestock depredations (6.2%), while 28% reported both. Conflict incidences were relatively high in summer and frequently occurred in areas closer to the forest (<500 m) and between the elevations range of 2700 m to 3000 m above sea level (asl). The dependency of locals on forest resources (70%) for their livelihood makes them vulnerable to HBC. The "upper lower" class respondents were most impacted among the various socioeconomic classes. Two of the four clusters were identified as HBC hot spots in Lahaul valley using SaTscan analysis. We also obtained high HBC in cluster II with a 14.35 km radius. We found that anthropogenic food provisioning for HBB, livestock grazing in bear habitats, and poor knowledge of animal behavior among the communities were the major causes of HBC. We suggest horticulture crop waste management, controlled and supervised grazing, ecotourism, the constitution of community watch groups, and others to mitigate HBC. We also recommend notifying a few HBB abundant sites in the valley as protected areas for the long-term viability of the HBB in the landscape.

Landscape use and co-occurrence pattern of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its prey species in the fragile ecosystem of Spiti Valley, Himachal Pradesh.

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) plays a vital role in maintaining the integrity of the high mountain ecosystem by regulating prey populations and maintaining plant community structure. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the role of the snow leopard and its interaction with prey species. Further, elucidating landscape use and co-occurrence of snow leopard and its prey species can be used to assess the differential use of habitat, allowing them to coexist. We used camera trapping and sign survey to study the interactions of snow leopard and its prey species (Siberian Ibex- Capra sibrica and Blue sheep-Pseudois nayaur) in the Spiti valley Himachal Pradesh. Using the occupancy modelling, we examined whether these prey and predator species occur together more or less frequently than would be expected by chance. To understand this, we have used ten covariates considering the ecology of the studied species. Our results suggest habitat covariates, such as LULC16 (barren area), LULC10 (grassland), ASP (aspect), SLP (slope) and DW (distance to water), are important drivers of habitat use for the snow leopard as well as its prey species. Furthermore, we found that the snow leopard detection probability was high if the site was used by its prey species, i.e., ibex and blue sheep. Whereas, in the case of the prey species, the probability of detection was low when the predator (snow leopard) was present and detected. Besides this, our results suggested that both species were less likely to detect together than expected if they were independent (Snow leopard-Ibex, Delta = 0.29, and snow leopard-blue sheep, Delta = 0.28, both the values are <1, i.e., avoidance). Moreover, despite the predation pressure, the differential anti-predation habitat selection and restriction of temporal activities by the prey species when snow leopard is present allows them to co-exist. Therefore, considering the strong link between the habitat use by the snow leopard and its prey species, it is imperative to generate quantitative long-term data on predator-prey densities and the population dynamics of its prey species in the landscape.

The Sela macaque (Macaca selai) is a distinct phylogenetic species that evolved from the Arunachal macaque following allopatric speciation.

Arunachal macaque (M. munzala) is an endangered and recently discovered cercopithecine primate from Western Arunachal Pradesh, India. On genetic analyses of Arunachal macaques, we observed spatially distributed substantial inter-species genetic divergence among the samples collected from Arunachal Pradesh. The results suggested that Arunachal macaque evolved into two phylogenetic species about 1.96 mya following allopatric speciation by means of Sela mountain pass in Arunachal Pradesh, India. We describe - Sela macaque (M. selai) as a new macaque species that interestingly exhibited high intra-specific genetic variation and also harbors at least two conservation units. Further, we report the past demographic trajectories and quantify genetic variation required for taxonomic clarification. The present study also identifies gap areas for undertaking surveys to document the relic and unknown trans-boundary populations of macaques through multinational, multi-lateral cross border collaboration.

Future simulated landscape predicts habitat loss for the Golden Langur (Trachypithecus geei): A range level analysis for an endangered primate.

Trachypithecus geei Khajuria, 1956 or Golden langur are an endangered colobine primate species that are distributed in the transboundary region of Bhutan and India. The species is severely threatened because of increasing habitat fragmentation and isolation across its entire range, especially the populations in Assam, India. The distribution range of the species has not been updated for the last two decades, nor is there any proper evaluation of the habitat requirements for the species. Therefore, we mapped the habitat suitability for the species across its entire distribution and projected its habitat suitability on the simulated landscape for the future (2031). The results indicate that out of the total range extent (66,320 km2), only 12,265 km2 (18.49%) is suitable for the species at present, which will further be reduced to 8884 km2 by the year 2031, indicating major range contraction. These suitable habitats are largely scattered and fragmented in southern range of the species. Among the predictors used, the distance to evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forest was the strongest predictor out of the 35 used for model building. Moreover, land use and land cover were found to be more informative than the climatic variables. Much of the suitable habitats of the species are located outside the protected area network in the landscape. Therefore, we identified landscape configurations and suitable habitat areas for the future conservation and monitoring of Golden Langur in the protected areas of its range.

Landscape-level habitat management plan through geometric reserve design for critically endangered Hangul (Cervus hanglu hanglu).

Hangul (Cervus hanglu hanglu), the only red deer subspecies surviving in the Indian subcontinent, is of top conservation priority with global importance. Unfortunately, it has lost much of its historical distribution range, and it is now confined to Dachigam landscape within the Kashmir valley of India. The Government of India initiated a recovery plan in 2008 to augment their numbers through ex-situ conservation programs. However, it was necessary to identify potential hangul habitats in Kashmir valley for adopting landscape-level conservation planning for the species. Based on geometric aspects of reserve design, we modeled hangul habitat using an ensemble approach to identify hangul habitats. The present model indicates that the conifer and broadleaf mixed forests were the most suitable habitats. Only 9% of the total study landscape was found suitable for the species. We identified corridors among the suitable habitat blocks, which may be vital for the species' long-term genetic viability. We suggest reorganizing the existing management of Dachigam National Park (NP) following the landscape level and habitat block-level management planning based on the core principles of geometric reserve design. We recommend that the identified patch (PID-6) in the southern region of the landscape to be converted into a Conservation Reserve or merged with the Overa-Aru Wildlife Sanctuary. This habitat patch PID-6 may be a stepping stone habitat and vital for maintaining the species landscape connectivity and metapopulation dynamics.

Adaptive spatial planning of protected area network for conserving the Himalayan brown bear.

Large mammals that occur in low densities, particularly in the high-altitude areas, are globally threatened due to fragile climatic and ecological envelopes. Among bear species, the Himalayan brown bear (Ursus arctos isabellinus) has a distribution that is restricted to Himalayan highlands with relatively small and fragmented populations. To date, very little scientific information on the Himalayan brown bear, which is vital for the conservation of the species and the management of its habitats, especially in protected areas of the landscape, is available. The present study aims to understand the effectiveness of existing Himalayan Protected Areas in terms of representativeness for the conservation of Himalayan brown bear (HBB), an umbrella species in high-altitude habitats of the Himalayan region. We used the ensemble approach of the species distribution model and then assessed biological connectivity to predict the current and future distribution and movement of HBB in climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Approximately 33 protected areas (PAs) currently possess suitable habitats. Our model suggests a massive decline of approximately 73.38% and 72.87% under 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) respectively in the year 2050 compared with the current distribution. The predicted change in suitability will result in loss of habitats from thirteen PAs; eight will become completely uninhabitable by the year 2050, followed by loss of connectivity in the majority of PAs. Habitat configuration analysis suggested a 40% decline in the number of suitable patches, a reduction in large habitat patches (up to 50%) and aggregation of suitable areas (9%) by 2050, indicating fragmentation. The predicted change in geographic isotherm will result in loss of habitats from thirteen PAs, eight of them will become completely inhabitable. Hence, these PAs may lose their effectiveness and representativeness in achieving the very objective of their existence or conservation goals. Therefore, we recommend adaptive spatial planning for protecting suitable habitats distributed outside the PA for climate change adaptation.